The press is full of rumours and reports of a bid to get rid of Deutsche Bank’s CEO John Cryan.
It won’t solve my old employer’s problems. In fact, it might make them worse.
Let me say first off that I’ve never met John Cryan (he arrived at Deutsche some time after I left the bank). But people whom I respect and who are still in the firm have good words to say about him: focused, competent, unfussy. In addition he’s probably got superhuman patience and, it seems, the thick hide of a hippo. Vital qualities for the tasks ahead.
If he survives, that is.
The problems he is dealing with at Deutsche are well documented: sky-high costs, mind-bogglingly large legal bills and settlements, and a complex new regulatory landscape which could have been designed expressly to hurt Deutsche’s old investment banking business model.
All of which has led to weak profitability (or, more accurately, no profitability at all since 2014) and a stock price that has been clubbed to its knees. On top of that, as if to add paraffin to the bonfire, intermittent rumours that the bank could default. Cryan doesn’t need my sympathy, but he has it anyway.
That said, he is by all accounts grinding away at the problems: most of the big legal issues have been squared away; capital has being raised; costs are being targeted. But like a patient trying to walk again after a bad car wreck, recovery will take time.
It seems that major shareholders and the DB chairman Paul Achleitner would prefer a quicker route back to health. They seem to think that a new man at the top will make it happen.
It’s unlikely, in my view.
To understand why, you have to realise that Deutsche isn’t in poor shape because of lack of energy from senior managers or because of a failure of diagnosis – you don’t have to have finished top of your class at Harvard Business School to figure out DB’s problems. Rather, it’s because DB’s weaknesses are historic, strategic and structural and embedded in the bank like cherries in a cake.
Most universal banks that expanded into investment banking in the mid-1990s did so from a position of strength gained from owning a profitable retail franchise or a kick-ass private wealth arm.
An exemplar would be Barclays, which benefited mightily from the getting-close-to-oligopolistic structure of the UK retail banking market and then punted some of the resulting free cash flow on BarCap; another example is UBS, which could rely on its exceptional wealth management franchise.
Deutsche was different. Its retail franchise, although extensive, could not generate huge returns because of the peculiar, fragmented and hyper-competitive nature of the German market. It was competing with banks which were pretty much ‘not for profit’. Less excusably, the performance of its private wealth business was – and for decades, continued to be – utterly anaemic.
Thus, its expansion into investment banking did not come from a position of strength like its peers but, instead, weakness. Investment banking for DB wasn’t like flash new leather seats and a high-end stereo shoehorned into a reliable station wagon. It was the new engine installed in a rusting banger.
That’s why the investment bank at DB was built in a tearing hurry. It was vital to get it to scale quickly. Whole teams of people hired in one go; Bankers Trust bought and semi-integrated piecemeal; the hasty creation of bootstrapped – ‘it’ll do for now’ – computer systems.
Above all – silos. Two of the words most often used about the Deutsche investment bank in its glory years of the 2000s – ‘entrepreneurial’ and ‘political’ – were as a direct result.
If you can build any business and product you want without much worry about fitting into existing infrastructure, it certainly encourages you to push hard for growth. And if there are no clear demarcations over who owns what product or client group (a nebulous state of uncertainty that was actively encouraged from the top) you’re going to get unholy scraps as a consequence.
Of course, for years this didn’t matter. There was plenty of money to be made by the aggressive and quick. There was more than enough to hide the high cost base in the investment bank and – at its peak – the weakness of the rest of DB as a whole.
Then came the Crisis.
To be fair, Deutsche did passably well in the height of the chaos. It was crushed in certain products (credit, equities) but made enough in others (money markets, FX – yay!) to keep it out of trouble. The problems came afterwards. New capital rules. Business drying up in some of the most profitable areas. Limits on leverage. The days of easy access to resources were over.
This was crucial. Back in the go-go days of 2006, an old boss of mine kicked off his introduction to a meeting of his senior managers with a slide of a lion eating a zebra. ‘There are no limits to resources’, he said, ‘not people, not balance sheet, not IT spend. If you can make money out of it, you’ll get it’.
That changed. Suddenly there were restrictions which meant that businesses that had always ignored costs now had to swivel by 180 degrees. It was a painful transition.
Wind forward to today. The legacy of the mad dash for silo’ed growth is still with the bank. One element of the legacy is a maze of incompatible computer systems. And not just incompatible – some are ancient. Take, for example, a system that supports a swathe of the bank’s retail business in Germany. It is called GDS and was written in the 1970s. Written in COBOL I might add (for younger readers, COBOL is the programming language that was used to design Stonehenge).
This is just one example. There are many, many more. This is why re-coding Deutsche Bank is a colossal, and colossally expensive, task. What’s more it is one that must be undertaken while revenues are under heavy pressure. The once-rocket-fueled sales and trading business is hemmed in by regulations and low rates and low volatility. The rest of the bank (retail, advisory, private wealth etc.) is coping with its long-term structural weakness while no longer being flattered by other people’s revenues.
Which all brings me back to the unhappy Mr. Cryan.
Solving the problems of DB will not be easy and will not be quick. Changing CEO will simply create a mess of new political infighting with its resultant uncertainty and temporary paralysis as senior guys scrap to see who gets what job. But, when it is over, the same challenges will remain.
You can change the oil tanker’s skipper, but you can’t change the physics of steering it.
March 28, 2018 at 10:55 pm
There are two sides of story ,you said it all .nice read
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March 29, 2018 at 10:39 am
The myth is that DB made it through the crisis “okay”. IAS 39 re-class assets were at one point 10billion carried off market as well as all of the NCOU losses which if taken in 2008 would have been up around the same number, pus the credit correlation scandal….DB was toast….it just hid its losses better than most
The Investment Bank with all the losses and fines, never has made money! Its all a Volkswagen emission scandal!
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March 29, 2018 at 10:50 am
Slightly controversial one and difficult to prove in retrospect. It’s been 10 years and the bank’s still solvent so if it was insolvent in ’08 things must have improved since. Given that it turns out that even Lehman was solvent in ’08 that wouldn’t surprise me! But I think it is true that if DB had taken very conservative marks on a lot of its illiquid assets in credit etc. market confidence might have disappeared and it could have run out of funding. As it was, DB was utterly swimming in funding. Also, assuming that all bad marks should have been built in to credit correlation etc.
ignores the fact that money markets and FX were marked pretty heavily against the bank (liquidity reserves) which would have offset this to a large extent.
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March 30, 2018 at 11:07 am
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/deutsche-bank-agburning-down-most-powerful-ground-after-powell/
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March 30, 2018 at 3:08 pm
Achleitner is the problem. As I stated, this firm would rather hide losses than deal with them. The thing Is, if you keep hiding, you keep burdening the future. Check out the non-strat portfolio. Cryan tried to deal with them but Achleitner dreams of being Chairman of a European GS. The SB is the problem.
Rates, equities lose money. EM Isis worthless. FX is s utility and credit just does commercial banking cloaked as trading.
What makes sense is the end if GM…
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March 30, 2018 at 5:58 pm
Oh, and agree Achleitner is part of the problem, that is clear.
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March 30, 2018 at 5:48 pm
There’s certainly a coherent argument to made to get out of investment banking and return to being a retail / commercial bank in Germany . Not sure it’s going to be an exciting stock to own, but that might be no bad thing. Don’t think that’s on the cards. As an aside, while I agree with you on certain of the GM businesses, dismissing FX as ‘a utility’ misses the brilliant returns in this unit. Let’s put it this way, if DB spun off FX like they’re part way doing with AWM, I’d buy the shares in a heartbeat. That would be the last part of DB I’d shut!
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April 5, 2018 at 2:14 am
Well said, Karsten. The Bank would actually be benefit from somebody who will stick around for a longer haul and the painful and slow rebuilding. In our days we have seen to many investment banker types who come and go for the quick cash and take off when another million was made in another shop across the street. That’s is not how you build a financial institution that relies on relationships, trust and Integrety.
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