A couple of
weeks years ago I gave a talk about my book “Why Aren’t They Shouting?” in front of a group of Belgian businessman at the Belgian embassy. The talk had a mixed reception. One gentleman, who worked at a hedge fund specialising in foreign exchange, took exception to my claim that automation has made the FX market more fragile.
Well I hope that, last night, he did not have any
GBP/USD USD/JPY positions stopped out near the lows. If he did I’m sure that now he would be more willing to agree with me.
The move last night (
7th October 2016 3rd January 2019) in Cable USD/JPY from about 1.2640 109.00 to a low print some 10% 4% lower in a matter of a few minutes is being dubbed another “flash crash” or “fat finger” incident. Some people, giving it the old rational markets try, have suggested that comments by the French president about the terms of Brexit a disappointing earnings announcement by Apple could have spooked the markets.
I’m not sure what caused the move, but what I am sure about is that it should not have happened. The fact that the rate has bounced back to within a percent or so of its pre-move level supports this view.
Cable USD/JPY is one of the most important currency pairs in the markets. It is a measure of the rate of exchange between the biggest and the fifth or sixth third biggest economies on the planet. A move in this rate of 10% 4% is seismic. Stuff about Brexit. If we are to cling to the idea of exchange rates moving in a way that is lognormal, then this represents 10 5 or more daily standard deviations – ‘ X Y lifetimes of the universe’ territory.
At the risk of sounding like an old fogey and further annoying my Belgian friend, I believe that a move like this could not have happened in the old pre-automated market.
How would a ‘fat finger’ even have operated in the old days ? A junior (or possibly drunk senior) trader shouts down the line to a broker that he wants to sell a 100 billion
quid bucks? ‘Don’t be a twat mate’ would have been the response. Automated stop losses? No such thing. No-one willing to make a rate? Everyone, at dozens of banks, was willing to step up.
That’s why when there were very big moves there was always a damn good reason. These days – not so much.
I’m sure that an inquest will now take place. Although I say that I do not know what happened, I am willing to make a gambling man’s guess. And that guess would be that the move was caused by some error in an algorithm; the effect of which was compounded by triggering of automated stop losses in a nervous market.
But I am also sure of another thing – and that is that nothing will change. There is no overarching authority for FX. The ongoing automation of the market will continue and incidents like last night’s will become increasingly commonplace.
Whether that is a price worth paying for the undoubted increase in convenience and (marginal) decrease in costs of trading foreign exchange these days is a debate for the future.
[Note to readers: to save me effort in the future, please print out the original article and substitute the correct currency pair, date and rates when the next flash crash happens. Thanks.]