Screaming and Shouting

Banking, computers and perpetual crisis



Death and Density

Black Death

The headlines shout about the growing death toll from coronavirus, but there is less focus on the link between mortality and population density.  That’s surprising because the link appears to be strong – certainly in the US and EU.

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Not Repeating but Rhyming: Coronavirus and the Great Financial Crisis


“History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes” Mark Twain

Despite the obvious differences in cause, the current virus-triggered economic meltdown and the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 have some peculiar parallels.

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Sic Transit… (Remembering Javid and Jennions)

It’s been a few months since I posted to this blog site; the long gap has had various causes, some of which are interesting (to me) others rather tedious.  But a couple of news items in the last week or so have prompted me to come back.

The first is yesterday‘s resignation of UK Chancellor Sajid Javid.

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DB’s last safe job


It appears that Deutsche is shutting Equities and 18,000 people will lose their jobs. But one job seems safe – the Chairman’s.   Continue reading “DB’s last safe job”

Deutsche’s Chernobyl


Deutsche is planning a ‘bad bank’: my heart goes out to the clean up workers.

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Shorts: DB Merger and the Bitcoin bounce


48 days later: let’s call the whole thing off…

A few weeks after the much touted – and long anticipated – merger talks between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank started, they have come to a sudden grinding halt

Continue reading “Shorts: DB Merger and the Bitcoin bounce”

Party time for microeconomics!


British politics is changing: there’s Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party; there’s The Independent Group. But will these nascent parties succeed?

In this long read blog piece, to attempt an answer, I use a key theory from organisational microeconomics which helps explain both the existence and success of political parties.

Short answer?  In the long term the new parties are probably doomed.

Continue reading “Party time for microeconomics!”

Strength, Credit and Gorillas on Deutsche Bank’s narrow, rocky road to recovery


An examination of the trends in market share for two of the bank’s previously most dominant business lines (FX and the German derivative securities unit) suggests how tricky it will be for Deutsche to perform the balancing act it requires in order to recover.

Continue reading “Strength, Credit and Gorillas on Deutsche Bank’s narrow, rocky road to recovery”

Fat finger forex (New! USD/JPY edition)


A couple of weeks years ago I gave a talk about my book “Why Aren’t They Shouting?” in front of a group of Belgian businessman at the Belgian embassy.  The talk had a mixed reception. One gentleman, who worked at a hedge fund specialising in foreign exchange, took exception to my claim that automation has made the FX market more fragile.

Well I hope that, last night, he did not have any GBP/USD USD/JPY positions stopped out near the lows. If he did I’m sure that now he would be more willing to agree with me.

Continue reading “Fat finger forex (New! USD/JPY edition)”

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