When I was a child in the 1960s, I remember reading an illustrated article about what the world would be like in 50 years – approximately where we are right now, in fact. It looked pretty exciting.
Continue reading “Like banking in the not-too-distant future…an introduction to this blog”
Regulation of the City is about to get laxer. Who could have predicted that?
Continue reading “Brexit and the City: who saw that coming?”
I haven’t been posting for some time; mainly as a result of various case-related ‘sensitivities’. But I have not been idle and I have a favour to ask you.
Short story: please click on the link below and buy an album called ‘Twelve Scenes Without Words’ by Skyggefabrikk. If you do, the proceeds will go to the Multiple Sclerosis Society and – if yours is one of the first three hundred purchases – I will match that sum, which means the MS Society will gain twice over.
The headlines shout about the growing death toll from coronavirus, but there is less focus on the link between mortality and population density. That’s surprising because the link appears to be strong – certainly in the US and EU.
“History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes” Mark Twain
Despite the obvious differences in cause, the current virus-triggered economic meltdown and the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 have some peculiar parallels.
Continue reading “Not Repeating but Rhyming: Coronavirus and the Great Financial Crisis”
It’s been a few months since I posted to this blog site; the long gap has had various causes, some of which are interesting (to me) others rather tedious. But a couple of news items in the last week or so have prompted me to come back.
The first is yesterday‘s resignation of UK Chancellor Sajid Javid.
Continue reading “Sic Transit… (Remembering Javid and Jennions)”
It appears that Deutsche is shutting Equities and 18,000 people will lose their jobs. But one job seems safe – the Chairman’s. Continue reading “DB’s last safe job”
Deutsche is planning a ‘bad bank’: my heart goes out to the clean up workers.
48 days later: let’s call the whole thing off…
A few weeks after the much touted – and long anticipated – merger talks between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank started, they have come to a sudden grinding halt.
British politics is changing: there’s Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party; there’s The Independent Group. But will these nascent parties succeed?
In this long read blog piece, to attempt an answer, I use a key theory from organisational microeconomics which helps explain both the existence and success of political parties.
Short answer? In the long term the new parties are probably doomed.
An examination of the trends in market share for two of the bank’s previously most dominant business lines (FX and the German derivative securities unit) suggests how tricky it will be for Deutsche to perform the balancing act it requires in order to recover.
Continue reading “Strength, Credit and Gorillas on Deutsche Bank’s narrow, rocky road to recovery”
A couple of weeks years ago I gave a talk about my book “Why Aren’t They Shouting?” in front of a group of Belgian businessman at the Belgian embassy. The talk had a mixed reception. One gentleman, who worked at a hedge fund specialising in foreign exchange, took exception to my claim that automation has made the FX market more fragile.
Well I hope that, last night, he did not have any GBP/USD USD/JPY positions stopped out near the lows. If he did I’m sure that now he would be more willing to agree with me.
Just over twenty years ago, Deutsche Bank bought my old employer Bankers Trust for $10 billion; now DB looks like it may well merge with Commerzbank.
My experience of the first deal makes me fear mightily for the success of the second.
Continue reading “Two big; two flail: Deutsche and Commerzbank”
A year on from the peak of the hype, Cryptocurrencies are under the cosh. They might have to turn back to one of their niche selling points to find a long term role: and that’s privacy.
Last Friday, a US jury returned a verdict of not guilty for the three FX traders tried in the ‘Cartel’ case. It’s another random spin of the wheel in the casino of justice – a casino where, win or lose, everyone who is forced to enter faces ruin.
On the tenth anniversary of Lehman, it’s worth asking: could it really have been avoided?
Continue reading “Terminated: was Lehman’s death inevitable?”
I just booked some return flights to Malaga; if you work in financial markets it might be vital for you to know when I’m going.
Mark Johnson is out of prison, at least for the time being. It’s a small, significant step in the right direction. But it’s just a step.
There is more work to be done.
Continue reading “Thing with feathers: Mark Johnson’s bail pending appeal”
[A version of this article originally appeared in Euromoney. It is reproduced here with the permission of the Editor]
Mark Johnson, the HSBC FX trader found guilty of wire fraud last October and sentenced to two years in jail this April, is appealing his conviction.
You should care about the outcome.
A number of news items and events this week have made me think about the world of investment banking again after a few relaxing weeks off for good behaviour.
They have not been happy thoughts.
Continue reading “The slow and painful death of European investment banking”
From rumour, to leak, to background briefing, to common knowledge, to ‘absolute commitment’, to emergency weekend meetings; and from there to a summary firing and replacement – all in less than two weeks.
Cryan’s gone as CEO, Sewing is in, and a whole bunch of new problems are just starting for my old shop Deutsche Bank.
Continue reading “Unpicking the Sewing at Deutsche”
Screaming and Shouting 